# Aurora Forecast Tonight

> View NOAA’s latest 30-minute aurora forecast for both hemispheres, with modeled occurrence probabilities and clear visibility caveats.

Canonical URL: https://www.argo.net/aurora-forecast-tonight/
Byline: ARGO.net Editorial Team
Published: 2026-08-01T21:46:23+00:00
Categories: Space, Live, Physics

![Vibrant aurora borealis lights cascade over a dark, silhouetted mountain range at night](https://www.argo.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Earth_magnetosphere_aurora.jpg)

Live data

## Aurora Forecast Tonight

      Data updated August 4, 2026 2:10 pm GMT+0000   Source data dated August 4, 2026   Editorially updated August 1, 2026

The newest refresh was unsuccessful or delayed. The last verified data is shown.

  12%Northern maximum 14%Southern maximum 69.0° N / 51.0° S10% contour reaches    ![NOAA OVATION northern hemisphere aurora forecast map](https://www.argo.net/wp-content/uploads/argo-living/noaa-aurora-north.jpg)

*Northern Hemisphere 30-minute aurora forecast.*

  ![NOAA OVATION southern hemisphere aurora forecast map](https://www.argo.net/wp-content/uploads/argo-living/noaa-aurora-south.jpg)

*Southern Hemisphere 30-minute aurora forecast.*

**Visibility depends on more than the model.** Cloud, daylight, moonlight, local darkness, and light pollution determine whether an aurora can actually be seen. The percentages describe modeled auroral occurrence, not your personal chance of seeing it.

 **Primary source:** [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast).

## The latest short-range aurora forecast

This page displays the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center OVATION forecast](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast) for the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The model estimates the location and intensity of auroral activity roughly 30 to 90 minutes ahead.

## How to read the colors and percentages

Brighter model colors indicate a greater modeled chance of auroral occurrence in the overhead area. They are not a personalized probability of seeing the aurora from the ground. A low aurora can sometimes be visible toward the poleward horizon beyond the most intense part of the oval.

## How often it updates

ARGO.net checks NOAA every five minutes. The forecast can shift quickly when the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field change.

## Will it actually be visible?

You still need darkness, a clear sky, and a reasonably unobstructed poleward view. Twilight, moonlight, cloud, haze, mountains, and artificial light can hide a forecast aurora. Cameras may record colors and structure that are difficult to see with the unaided eye.

## For broader space-weather context

Use this short-range map together with ARGO.net’s [Space Weather Today](https://www.argo.net/space-weather-today/) dashboard and NOAA’s watches, warnings, and alerts. Geomagnetic forecasts describe large-scale conditions; local visibility remains uncertain.